26 Dec 2008
0 CommentsPlaying the Lottery after the Meltdown
Fold or raise? Full house or three of a kind? Eager to jump start an economy that has seen almost unprecedented meltdown, governments around the world are racing to place gargantuan bets with taxpayer and treasury money. Only time will separate the profound from the boondoggle among these bets. Meanwhile, poised on the dawn of a new year, I’ll present my analysis and opinion, recognizing that the complexity of the current situation dictates that no one has the real answer.
Last year’s credit crunch and the ensuing illiquidity has generated a financial crisis whose effect that might have, only a few months ago, seemed totally inconceivable:
- massive government ownership of banks (HBOS, Northern Rock) and insurance companies (AIG)
- bankruptcies of some pillars of the financial system (Lehman Brothers)
- a North American auto industry (GM, Ford, Chrysler) that stared down death, and even with bailouts, may not survive in any recognizable form
- an estimated $30 trillion of value wiped out of global stock markets in a matter of months, according to Alan Greenspan
- not to mention a US recession that has already lasted a surprising one year, with almost no country globally, including hitherto unstoppable China, seeming able to escape severe slowdown.
Closer to home, in 2009, the Canadian province of Ontario, will for the first time have a slower GDP growth than the country as a whole and, in essence, become a have not province. As a country, Canada has a historical reputation of being:
“hewers of wood and drawers of water”
One could easily add to that old dictum:
“hackers of rock, drillers of oil and bashers of metal”
While Canada thrived on a commodity based economy, Ontario’s strategic proximity to Detroit, made the automotive industry king and made Ontarians as rich as almost any region in the world as a result. Over the last 20 years, as the economy started to transition toward knowledge intensive industries and away from basic manufacturing, Ontario did make some strategic investments in Advanced Manufacturing, involving information technologies such as robotics, automation and MRP increased basic efficiencies.
However, with the unstoppable rush of manufacturing activity to the Pearl River delta in Asia, that strategy is no longer enough.
A few months ago, I wrote a series on Public Policy for the Digital Age, which I wrote in the vain hope of stimulating some real discussion during a particularly unexciting Canadian election campaign. At that time, Canadian politicians seemed to ignore what the general public already knew “It’s the economy stupid”. Now, almost no one believes that something should but done, but the question is what?
Many believe that the making real things are the only real“jobs, and that all other jobs are just glorified hamburger flipping. Nothing could be further from the truth. Consider the pervasiveness of information technology, in all aspects of our economy, as an example:
- the average car is really a complicated computer network, or even cloud, or hundreds (and soon to be thousands) of networked computers with unprecedented software. And the trend to IT in automobiles continues to accelerate into areas such as traffic optimization and safety.
- for even the most sophisticated manufacturers of smartphones, such as RIM, Nokia or Apple, software complexity now signficantly outguns RF Engineering and manufacturing of the devices. The smartphone is essentially a complicated software and services ecosystem which happens to have some hardware to run on.
- green technologies, such as green energy, increasingly harness complicated IT-based systems, to innovations in nanotechnology and industrial design.
- healthcare and life sciences for an aging economy, is just starting to be transformed by software, web and mobile based delivery mechanisms, driven both by concerns about escalating costs but also increasingly demanding consumers.
There is no question that, even if all the actual metal-bashing manufacturing were to migrate offshore, the real value adds during the coming decades will be in such knowledge intensive industries.
It is in this context, and with best practice economic theory suggesting that, in times of recession, strategic economic stimulus is critical to drive recovery, governments have no real choice but to act. And, the global price tag of such economic stimulus will entail trillions of dollars of spending.
Therefore, while government investments in:
- infrastructure, like highways and bridges
- an auto industry that has stubbornly refused to invest in future technologies
are inevitable, governments must save some “powder” to invest in our economic future. The old adage of investing in buggy whips at the dawn of the age of the automobile couldn’t be more true (not to mention ironic) today. The fact that governments don’t generally do a great job in picking winners and losers only magnifies the problem.
My message to our public policy makers here in Ontario, and probably most other OECD countries as well, is simple:
- find a way to channel some of the economic stimulus into sectors that will be the future of the country,
- resist the urge to make discrete investment decisions, instead finding ways to leverageor top up existing investment decisions made in the private sector, and lastly
- measure the results so future generations can benefit from our economic experiments.
As taxpayers, it’s our money politicians are spending, topped up by money created by turning the printing presses at the Bank of Canada. Therefore, it is only reasonable that we need to be heard in determining how it should be spent.
13 Jan 2009
0 CommentsAnother One Bites the Dust – and You Thought Business Was in Crisis Mode
“Another one bites the dust.
How do you think I’m going to get along,
Without you, when you’re gone”
Queen
This is a call to action where individual citizens can make a huge difference.
The recent loss of a local cultural gem, namely King Street Theatre:
Curtain Closes on Another Local Local Theatre
and the near death experience of the 87 year old cultural gem the Grand Philharmonic Choir, from cash flow challenges, has shone a spotlight on how the financial meltdown is already impacting the Waterloo area arts and cultural scene. As one who supported King Street Theatre’s original capital campaign, I feel this loss personally. Further, I am optimistic that many in our community share this sense of loss.
Many of the key funders who directly invest in our cultural sector, such as local foundations and individual donors, have seen their financial investments tank along with the rest of us. Given that 2009 contributions will largely be determined by 2008 investment returns, we are probably just seeing the tip of the iceberg.
The media cites lack of citizen interest or poor attendance as the root cause. Many business people working with social enterprises observe that many organizations lack the right management to deliver better results. While all true, I would posit that the challenges of the cultural sector are much more complex. I’m as much a believer in economic Darwinism, which dictates that in order to have real success, you also need to have failures. In fact, my recent post Playing the Lottery after the Meltdown underscores this notion in regard to the recent government led auto sector bail outs. Mark McArdle’s post What I Didn’t Get for Christmas makes an even stronger case for economic Darwinism.
That being said, much of the social sector, including arts, culture, the environment and many other social causes, have long operated in a marginal and underfunded state. This, for most organizations, trumps the above concerns about attendance or management quality. It is fortunate indeed that many community leaders met last September at the Prosperity Council of Waterloo Region: Task Force on Creative Enterprise to begin to put together a comprehensive, strategic initiative to invest in and develop our overall capabilities in the Creative and Cultural sphere. While from an early 2009 perspective, this might not at first appear to be the ideal time to launch such a big idea, we need to remember that such initiatives are long term and may need a number of years to properly gestate. Ideally, need to be ready so that our collective efforts can bear fruit in time for the next economic boom in the Waterloo area.
Meanwhile, I would call all citizens who care about the cultural future of the Waterloo area to respond with their support. While each of us may favour different organizations and ways to provide that support, we all need to do our part. The great community we live in depends on each of us to personally help to nurture and invest in its future.