Public Policy

15 Jul 2019

Investing Through The Unfolding Energy Disruption

Although a life long mathematician and technologist, recently much of my focus has been on being a savvy investor, in many asset classes from private seed/angel investing to public markets and alternative investments. While Canadian investors have traditionally thrived on conservative, cash generating value investing and fixed income plays, the future is rendering such risk averse models obsolete, making it critical to adopt a forward lens, looking out, perhaps a decade into the future.

I have lived through many market disruptions in which “software is eating the world.” Such disruptions include the “Kodak Moment” of digital photography rendering mining of silver oxide to supply the ecosystem around film irrelevant in a digital photography age. Another exemplar is the upending the entire value chain for newspapers and other ad-funded media by the likes of Google (Adwords) EBay (classified ads).

Energy has driven world economies for time immemorial and may even have led to the fall of the Roman Empire. As modern societies have become wealthier, energy consumption has seen stratospheric growth. The simple reason is that Energy underpins the creature comforts of modern society, including food, shelter, transportation and consumer consumption. There is widespread concern that this nonstop growth model that underpins our economy is ultimately unsustainable, particularly as rich country ways spread to the rest of the soon to be 10 billion people on planet earth. The younger generation, who will ultimately see the limits of such consumption in their lifetimes, has embraced a more pessimistic view of their future and adopted a focus on lifestyle changes, including low carbon (vegan or vegetarian) diets, not owning a car, and trying to eschew rampant consumerism.

Essentially, there are two paths open to a more sustainable way of living:

conservation, in which individuals strive to lower their environmental (primarily carbon) footprint, and
a technology revolution in which traditional energy is replaced, for example by renewables, and even more radical, technologies that remove carbon from the atmosphere.

Thus, futurists have long predicted the same fate for energy driven by new technologies that include renewables, storage (battery and other), Digital Electricity, subjecting the global energy market to its own “Kodak Moment” of digital disruption. The future has arrived, and today in 2019, this energy disruption is already in full force, potentially rendering oil, gas and coal essentially obsolete over a time as short as the next decade.

What does this mean for the Canadian investor, including business, government and insurance companies who all will see their future results impacted by how this unfolds?

I have been researching a formal presentation around energy disruption for investors, but this recent CBC article spurred me to publish this post and perhaps have readers send me their thoughts and research.

Fighting climate change may be cheaper and more beneficial than we think | CBC News
Governments aren't calculating the true cost of fighting climate change when they fail to take into account side effects such as fewer deaths from air pollution - co-benefits that make the net cost of climate action as low as zero, growing evidence shows.

The above article is instructive inasmuch as it paints a picture of a better world achieved by strategically and aggressively re-allocating resources in our economy. The suggestion is that to do so, far from being foolishly spendthrift, is our most rational and positive outcome. What it doesn’t say is that to delay doing this, by allowing others to capture leadership in the “new”, post fossil fuel, growth industries, render Canada a much poorer (aka “third world”) country in the future.

The fossil fuel (coal, oil and gas) industry is facing many headwinds, which has moved economists from a previous narrative of concern about “Peak Oil” (ie. the world is running out of oil) to the new narrative of “Peak Demand” (ie. demand will drop as energy consumption is disrupted by new technologies). Here are some of the head winds and their implications:

Over the last decade, coal power, one of our greatest carbon producers, has already been rendered uneconomic, with declines in coal mining and production starting from around 2010.
Solar and Wind electricity production costs continue to drop and since 2016 are cheaper at scale than oil, and now gas (including Gas Peaker Plants).
The electrification of transportation, from cars, buses, trucking and more, is continuing to grow rapidly year over year. Current estimates call for Peak Petroleum Vehicle (ie. those “ICE” or Internal Combustion Engine powered) sales to occur by 2023.
New technologies, particularly in the areas of energy storage, are quickly coming on stream. Year over year more than doubling in such storage capacity further indicates exponential disruption at work.
Carbon pricing, in whatever form whether carbon tax or cap and trade, is needed for the market economy to work and will certainly become pervasive as the climate crisis escalates. It will require the majority of people to demand government policy and action. Current government policies seem to be held hostage to the oil and gas lobby instead of the wishes of the general public, although some parties try to disguise oil and gas wishes as “for the people”.
Fossil fuel subsidies in Canada, including taxes and direct subsidies, are estimated to be between $30 and $50 Billion annually. I continue to work at sourcing more definitive subsidy data, but it is clear that simply better allocating these subsidies to a cleaner future must happen.
Because the oil industry has known about our current Climate Crisis for many years (40 or more) and actively spread misinformation and hugely lobbied governments to ignore the long term effects, litigation for the damages caused by climate change will only escalate. This is analogous to the class action suits against tobacco companies for spreading misinformation about smoking in the 1960s and 1970s that have made these industries Wall Street pariahs today. In essence, this misinformation and deflection is an attempt to delay the inevitable, at the cost of real future damage to our world and the people inhabiting it.
Fake News Has a Cost: various industries have spent billions of dollars bombarding us with a continuous stream misinformation in order to distract and deflect us from proper policy. While the Kohl Brothers who make money from coal are legendary, examples of other myths include:
- apparently the power unions and nuclear industry heavily fund anti-wind energy misinformation, such as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- the auto industry funds significant misinformation about EVs, and this isn’t just in Buzzfeed, but in fact finds itself in otherwise reputable news media like The Globe and Mail: See The Trouble with Electric Vehicles – Winter and Out in the Cold with a Hyundai Kona Electric.
- consider both the cost to all of us when this misinformation helps form government policy and also the notion that those promulgating this misinformation may attract future liability for harm stemming from real harm their actions inflict on society.
For those not familiar with Exponential Innovation, it can be deceptive because humans tend to see growth as linear and get caught off guard as what look like small numbers rapidly balloon into much larger ones. The perceptual problem that people have with Exponential Technology Adoption curves is explained here: The Problem With Exponential Innovation : People

The above just skims the surface of the major disconnect between reality and lobbying and misinformation. Those who want to drill deeper into this fascinating world of energy disruption may wish to check out this video by futurist and technologist Ramez Naam from Singularity University.

Ramez Naam - Future of Energy

All of this leads to predictions that, by around 2030, both the price of oil and the public market stock prices of public oil majors crater. In the process, some economists predict that globally US$100 Trillion (yes that’s right) of fossil fuel assets will be kept in the ground, and hence written down. Such a staggering number means a huge economic dislocation for countries, companies [and investors].

Here are some closing thoughts:

Short Coal, Oil and Gas: and their ecosystem. Although no one can be sure about the timing, the fact that the coming energy disruption will have a hugely detrimental effect on these industries is irrefutable. Don’t get caught in the massive price (commodity and stock) swings that this market disruption will unleash. You heard it here first!
See Beyond Partisan Politics: because parties, and elected representatives, seem more beholden to the 100 largest global fossil fuel companies than their own voters, the time is long overdue to return politics to a grassroots level of democracy where the views of citizen voters actually count. In the US, there is a movement to pressure local representative to refuse fossil fuel industry funding. It will be interesting to watch this unfold here in Canada. No doubt our coming economic transition will be a gargantuan effort — I liken our upcoming transition to the effort to win World War II – everyone united, regardless of party line, for a common cause. It would be good to emulate the spirit of such a war effort. In spite of past failures of partisan politics, the net/net is that citizens can mobilize and collectively push our elected officials toward policies that actually help citizens and our planet.
Insurance: The current climate crisis may up-end the property insurance business and make insurance coverage unaffordable for many homeowners. To date, the insurance industry has led in research and advocacy around resilience and adaptation to Climate Change. The day is fast arriving when that will have to change. Increased weather volatility may make the climate so hard to model that realistic pricing of risk, which determines policy premiums, close to impossible. Lastly, as litigation starts to segment companies by liability for knowingly contributing to climate change, the insurance industry will undoubtedly be forced to respond both in their own investment portfolios and in the core insurance business.

As an investor, citizen, and voter I know that we need a significant reset in how we respond to the inevitable decarbonization of our economy. No one suggests it will be easy. Conversely, further inaction and delay will result in hugely greater pain, and suffering.

It’s your choice – where will you place your investment?

5 Dec 2017

Canada – A Nation Built by (Extra) Ordinary People

In a previous post, I spoke about my involvement with Canada 150 and also the Canada C3 signature project. The latter is an epic journey divided into 15 “Legs”, on a former Canadian Coast Guard Ice Breaker vessel (the MV Polar Prince, ca 1958) refitted to sail from coast to coast to coast for 150 days, and provide an ideal platform for connections and conversations. As a participant, I can only say I was profoundly changed, inspired, enlightened and mobilized by my time.

At our 150th birthday in 2017, Canada is at a crossroads as it strives to outgrow its colonial past, to find its rôle and place in a new world order and to respond to the recent Truth and Reconciliation Commission Report on the mis-treatment of our Indigenous Peoples in Residential Schools.

Compared to the celebration of our history that was the focus of Canada’s Centennial in 1967, Canada C3 responded directly to such challenges and sought to contribute to a new sense of nation building in our country. The ambitious goal was to engage over 20 million Canadians and contribute to a Legacy for our nation as it looks forward to our bicentennial in 2067 and beyond.

Accordingly, the key themes for Canada C3 were crafted to help in this nation building:

Reconciliation with our Indigenous People, namely First Nations, Métis and Inuit.
Environment: and in particular the challenges of climate change as well as specific challenges facing our coastline and northern regions. A little known fact is that Canada has the longest coastline of any country in the world. Issues include species loss, micro plastics in our oceans, effects of higher sea levels and much more. See my post here: “Environmental Awakening Fusing of Science, The Arts and Sea Ice”
Diversity and Inclusion: Canada’s cultural mosaic includes people from all over the world which is a reflection of Canada’s admirable openness and welcoming nature. Although we have always been a country of newcomers. our society still has a way to go to be completely inclusive to: visible minorities, women, LGBT and those with disabilities.
Youth Engagement: As a baby boomer who was a teenager in 1967, I feel that my generation has proactively shaped the Canada we know today. Our generation has achieved much that is good but there are many areas to address. This is always a work in progress. Similarly, today’s youth must lead our quest for the Canada of 2067 and Canada C3 provided a great vehicle from them to learn,
share, contribute and ultimately act to help us build a future civil society that is just and open.

I was honoured and privileged to be a Participant on Leg 7 of Canada C3, from Iqaluit to Qikiqtarjuaq on the east coast of Baffin Island in our newest Territory. Note that I will write posts on most, if not all, of the above four themes through my eyes always amplified by and learning from the amazing people onboard and in the local communities. As I’ve learned, in any human endeavour, it is extraordinary people who shape Canada, and ignite me with a huge optimism about our future. The expedition organizers did an wonderful job in curating a massively diverse group of exceptional people, some of whom might too modestly consider themselves ordinary. In this post, and the following ones, I will try to share my thoughts as shaped by these extraordinary Canadians. I have also learned that, simply by convening conversations, powerful and transformative change can be unleassed.

To illustrate this, the ship had about 60 people onboard at any one time, as follows:

14 crew – from the amazing Captain Stephan Guy who also made the best bread I’ve had in a long time, and a group of hard working marine experts who worked hard 24/7 to ensure we progressed safely and on time,
20 staff – The staff was led by the world’s most innovative outdoor educator, Geoff Green, CM, expedition leader. The staff complement included onboard scientists conducting 25 experiments along the coast of Canada, Zodiac drivers and interpreters; bear guard[ians]; hospitality and cooking; onboard physician; and a Hollywood grade “comms” team of six (2 nationally leading photographers, a videographer, a drone operator and two prolific video and content editors who seemed to work around the clock), and
24 participants, for each of the 15 Legs or 360 for the entire expedition, selected in myriad ways, from invitation, partnership and application, including:
- journalists from across Canada
- a chef – each leg had one chef, part of Food Day Canada that celebrates food and food sustainability across Canada from coast to coast to coast
- a visual artist, one per leg, chosen by a Canada Council adjudicated jury
- a writer – ours was an Order of Canada poet who is a national treasure
- a musician
- educators – who could take the conversations back to our schools
- indigenous people – Leg 7 had 2 Inuit leaders and a youth ambassador from our First Nations
- youth ambassadors – we had 3 young people, already showing tremendous leadership and passion. I believe that, at their young age, this journey will be most transformational for them,
- partners, including from Canada Council, Apathy is Boring, etc
- business people,
- and many, many more.

Through my posts, pictures, and videos, you will meet some of the above people, but my focus for this post will be in the communities we visited on our journey. Since it was impossible for each and every Canadian to participate, I hope these posts can help people share and savour even a small portion of what I experienced.

While the backdrop of our journey, the east coast of Baffin Island, represents some of the most spectacular scenery on our planet, it only provided the context for our discussions and learning. Make no mistake, for those who are connoisseurs of art from the Arctic, the sense of lighting and colours seems alien to our more southern eyes, yet addictively beautiful. Compare the colours and textures of the iconic Inuit Artist Jessie Ooonark, Group of Seven member Lawren Harris, and a Brit bewitched by the north Ted Harrison to the real thing:

In posts that will follow, I will focus more on the people onboardCanada C3. For this post, I thought I’d talk about people encounters in the two main communities we visited, first Iqaluit, and our terminus in Qikiqtarjuaq.

Our first activity as a group was lunch and a hike in Sylvia Grinnel Territorial Park, which introduced us to the unique foliage north of the tree line. The park also contains archaeological sites of the ancient Dorset and Thule peoples. While there, we met a very engaging young Inuk named Jenna, shown here hamming it up for the camera. She was with her family fishing near Sylvia Grinnel Falls.

I was chatting with fellow participant, Lorna Crozier, when Jenna approached us and offered to sing a song

I soon learned that this friendly engagement, even with strangers, is a common part of Inuit culture. When, expecting to learn about some local singer celebrity, I asked her what her favourite singer was, perhaps I shouldn’t have been surprised that she answered “Katie Perry”.

Later our group toured the Nunatta Sunakkutaangit Museum, in the former Hudson’s Bay Company store, travelling there by our trusty yellow school bus.

There I saw a man whole seemed interested in our group, so I stopped and chatted with him. The video below explains why the talented artist was in Iqaluit. Jenna, riding her bike, was in the background of this interview, but got removed in editing. Charlie “C5” Johnston was definitely worth interviewing and, was it synchronicity for a person who brands himself “C5” to meet and interact with the “C3” group?

Later in Iqaluit, we got to meet many local people, including the scientists at Nunavut Research Institute, local artists, and kayak building at the local high school.

Days later, at the end of Leg 7 in Qikiqtarjuaq, most of our group climbed the hill overlooking the hamlet and the Canada C3 vessel, and we had a number of amazing encounters.

Initially I was surprised that the girl, shown above with her sister, had such a pro camera. Later, I learned that a journal and fellow participant Caroline G Murphy, had sportingly lent her camera. For more background on this budding young photographer, read Caroline’s article in Le Journal de Montréal J’ai Prêté ma Caméra a une Jeune Inuite de 9 Ans …

And, for those unable to read in French, our discussions on Diversity and Inclusion did encompass the original “Two Solitudes” in Canada, namely French and English. While Google can do a great job translating the article, the photos with the eye of a precocious 9 year old totally transcend traditional cultural divides.

Our final community encounter during Leg 7 was at a ceremony in Qikiqtarjuaq where we gave hockey sticks to the local children, who seem to have a passion for hockey that transcends even southern Canada’s hockey crazy intensity. Leading the presentation was Jim Kyte, fellow participant and the first legally deaf NHL hockey player. Jim is an inspirational leader I was happy to get to know who has overcome challenges that most would shy away from. Today he serves as Dean of the School of Hospitality and Tourism at Algonquin College in Ottawa.

Jim was joined by last minute participant, David Lawson, an Inuk leader who just resigned after 15 years serving his community in the RCMP. I am sure we will hear much more from David who just started a law degree in order to better advocate for his people. For example, he is Board President of Embrace Life Council, an Iqaluit-based suicide prevention organization. In a separate post, I will write more about my journey of learning about the Inuit people and their journey to become a vital part of the fabric of our Canadian nation.

Canada C3 made for some wonderful encounters and conversations. I can only wish that every Canadian was able to share my experiences with the wonderful diversity that is Canada. Even I took a long time to process this life changing experience. In the end, I had my understanding of my own country transformed both by the special world that is Canada’s Arctic regions, but even more so by people who now have a life long bond that will lead to action. These conversations were far from superficial and already, many of us are taking action. As we enter 2018, you will start to learn more about the Canada C3 Legacy Programs which will keep the torch of this remarkable nation building alive and further spreading that light in the form of action and education.

29 Jun 2017

Canada at 150 – What is Your Gift to Canada and the World?

As we approach Canada Day of our 150th year of Confederation, I am compelled to share my personal reflections on where our country is headed, how the lessons of history (positive or negative) are shaping our future journey and the contribution we, as Canadians, can make to our world. Beyond celebration, our nation urgently needs our care and attention. As a result, I am sharing my own journey in the form of a call to action.

Over four years ago, I received a call join a group helping to build programs to shape our Canadian sense as a “Smart and Caring Nation”, inspired by His Excellency Governor General David Johnston. My love of our country has been inexorably shaped and enhanced through extended periods of living and working abroad. The opportunity to serve Canada and to collaborate with an unbelievably talented group of leaders, made it a no-brainer for me to accept this call. Since then, in many varied groupings, conversations about Canada and nation-building were convened at Banff Centre for Arts and Creativity, the Deloitte Greenhouse, Wasan Island and more. Although not apparent from the core group shown below, a diverse and impactful group of individual leaders, first nations, national and local institutions, and many change makers from the charitable and NGO sector coalesced to help shape and expand this initiative. I am eternally thankful for the leadership of David Johnston and Community Foundations of Canada, for their leadership in starting these conversations. My investment of time and money has been returned many times over in my own knowledge and engagement.

Those early conversations helped to architect and propel grassroots activities around Canada 150 at a time when our federal government hadn’t yet climbed onboard the “150 bandwagon”. Although our path was initially unclear, and the group moving in several directions, eventually it became clear that the combination of passionate people inspired by a visionary challenge to create a “Smart and Caring Nation” unleashed many amazing initiatives. Some of the key Canada 150 themes started to emerge:

Youth Engagement – Millennials (and now, Generation Z) are the best educated generation of Canadians who are passionate and “issues”-driven, yet often fail to engage with the formal political process. Canada 150 is a great way to harness that energy and enthusiasm to shape our governance for the next generation.
Reconciliation with our Indigenous People – Canada has a sad record in our treatment of Indigenous People whose territory European settlers colonized and, without whom, our modern country would not have been built. The December 2015 Truth and Reconciliation Commission Report chaired by Chief Justice Murray Sinclair, painted a shocking portrait of the misguided and brutal “Indian Residential School System” previously almost unknown to most Canadians, even many in the First Nations community. Although Canada’s 150th birthday strikes a dissonant chord for many Indigenous people, it remains a unique opportunity to learn from past mistakes and to start building a better future together. In spite of the challenges raised by celebrating years of neglect and mis-treatment, I can only hope that we can find a way forward to a brighter future for all (Indigenous and non-indigenous) people in Canada.
Diversity and Inclusion has become of paramount importance in our increasingly diverse country. Ensuring that everyone “belongs” and can contribute to our common future, is a key priority. Furthermore, we must arrest our growing Inequality before it unleashes the destructive and divisive social forces we see in other countries.
Environmental Challenges – for many, particularly the youth, Climate Change and other environmental challenges caused by the impact of humanity on a finite planet, have gone from theoretical to becoming an “existential” crisis threatening our future wellbeing. I continue to work with others to explore ways to address what seems to be an intractable problem, not just at a government policy level but even more importantly at the grassroots level to engage ordinary Canadians.

Once these high level priorities were identified, many participants contributed to shaping thinking, leading to great initiatives such as the Alliance 150 to increase collaboration and partnership among organizations. And, as Federal and Provincial governments got onboard, these earlier efforts were foundational, setting the agenda for much of the current governmental and NGO work for Canada’s 150th. As we closed in on 2017, I channelled my focus to advising a number of national Canada 150 Signature Initiatives, such as Canada C3 and Canada 150 in our local communities, that directly descends from those early conversations.

As an Ambassador for the Canada C3 expedition, I am excited to see this project’s ambitions surpassed on all its major themes of Reconciliation, Youth Engagement, Inclusion & Diversity and Environmental Stewardship. Watch this nation building exercise grow during the Expedition as it reaches the majority of Canadians. I will use my time on Leg 7 of Canada C3, later this summer, to learn, engage and reflect collaboratively regarding our major Canadian challenges and opportunities.

What started with a request for me to make a gift of time and money, ended up as truly a life-changing gift back to me, and all those involved.

My biggest take away from this process, is that it is important for Canadians, individually and collectively, to work on nation building. Unsurprisingly, David Johnston said it best in a letter “What Will Your Gift Be?”, from his recent book The Idea of Canada – Letters to a Nation. Note that the proceeds from this wise work are directed to building the Rideau Hall Foundation which is another legacy of our current Governor General. In that letter:

“Each Canadian has the power within him or her to give something special to our country and help build that country we dream of. Big or small, complex or simple — it doesn’t matter what Canadians give. The gift each Canadian chooses is as unique as the person who shares that fit. .. young people in our country have a special responsibility to lead our country’s celebration of the 150th anniversary of Confederation.”

People around the world look to Canada as a bastion of democracy, decency and safety, buttressed by our reputation for being obsessively obsequious and our pioneering of international peacekeeping. As times change, our national role and aspirations also need to change. Just as we are no longer the extension to Victorian Great Britain of a 100 years ago, our post World War II Cold War era identity also needs to be re-imagined. What will Canada look like for our bicentennial in 2067? 2017 represents a unique and timely opportunity for us to all participate in shaping our common future.

Canada seems to be such a safe and peaceful country. Yet, present and historical events show that the veneer of civil society that we all hold dear and take for granted, can be fragile indeed. I am still struck by a story told by that master story teller, David Johnston. He reflected on The Ukrainian Pioneer, a 6 panel masterpiece by Canadian artist William Kurelek. Reflecting a life journey familiar to so many Canadians, the work chronicles a Ukrainian villager fleeing Josef Stalin’s genocidal famine of 1932-1933 (Holomodor) [See No. 1] who comes to forge a new life amid the relative tranquility and plenty of the Canadian prairies. However, barely visible in the background of the last idyllic panel The Ukrainian Pioneer, No. 6 (1976) is a mushroom cloud. Kurelek wanted to remind us that the veneer of civil society is thin and needs constant care and protection.

In 2017, many forces threaten the comfortable status quo that we expect from Canadian society. Those who are privileged to lead, indeed everyone, must take these forces seriously. Mass alienation and discontent with our current civil order represents a real cry for change. However, many times those grasping for change latch onto leaders whose seductive rhetoric proves ultimately destructive of the enviable civil society we have built over 150 years here in Canada.

A country is, indeed, the product of the collective hopes, dreams and ideals of its citizens. As John F Kennedy famously said,

“Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.

Yet, sometimes our daily news feeds chronicle the disturbing forces that appear to denigrate all that Canadians hold dear, such as:

a new move to put “drawbridges up”, instead of embracing the global world order,
a pervasive failure to question “fake news”, “alternate facts” and dismissal of reasoned analysis rather than encouragement of intelligent debate and problem solving, and
a shift in political discourse from a “narrative of hope”, to one that lacks civility, grace or higher purpose.

The more I travel and engage with global thought leaders, I learn that Canada is becoming the last bastion of a better way in the world. As a result, I believe those key Canada 150 themes of Reconciliation; Inclusion; Youth Engagement and Environmental Stewardship have escalated in importance from nice to have to social imperatives.

For individual Canadians, using 2017 as a springboard towards a “Smart and Caring” Nation in 2067, there are innumerable ways to make a difference with some combination of the trinity of “wealth“, “wisdom” and “work” focused on civic, social and cultural needs:

Volunteering to give back through a cause is vitally important to you, whether in your neighbourhood, nationally or internationally. A great example is the CANADA150FOR150 Volunteer Challenge
Donating to a cause that will help move the needle. Consider your local community first and your local Community Foundation may be a great place to start for new ideas and approaches, or
If you identify an unmet need in our society, consider starting a new Social Enterprise

Besides being amongst the most fulfilling work you will do in your life, your civic engagement will continue to help shape and grow the wonderful social and cultural fabric of this wonderful country we call Canada.

I have been inspired to continually re-think my gift to Canada, and now see it more of a journey than a destination. Stay tuned …

What is your gift to Canada? Are you prepared to do your part?

18 Sep 2016

Who Will Lead Our Institutions’ Response to Climate Change

Even though a life-long environmentalist, looking at the world through my children’s eyes drives home how pressing, and enormous, is the card we have dealt them. That legacy of unprecedented global climate change, leaves little choice between measures to achieve a rapid reversal of climate change or living with global apocalypse.

Personally, I vote for reversal, as one expects would most rational people. However, getting there requires a complete re-think of our lives, and our communities. In my daily life, I see huge opportunities.

From Central to Middle of Nowhere (West Field)

Having grown up in Listowel, Ontario, I recently attended the closing ceremony for the Central Public School which will be replaced by North Perth Westfield Elementary School – the difference in the names, previously “Central” to the new “West field” says it all and is illustrated in this map.

Although we all spent time reminiscing about memories and a proud history comprising at least 3 school buildings on the “Central” site, the issue I raise isn’t about heritage. The new school will necessitate a school bus ride for essentially all students. Unlike Central, where most students walked or biked to school, that option will be closed to all but a handful.

Beyond contributing to our climate change crisis, childhood obesity has doubled in the last 30 years (Reference: Centers for Disease Control), mostly as a result of less healthy eating and lack of physical activity. In an age where Physical Literacy and promoting active lifestyles has moved to the top of our agenda, school location should be seen as a contributor to the solution instead of being a major part of the culprit.

Near Elora, Centre Wellington District High School went through a similar “de-centralizing” exercise a few years ago. Groves Memorial Community Hospital is slated to move from its central location near downtown Fergus to a “green field” site (note the prevalence of the word “field” in these decisions) in land between the built up areas of Fergus and Elora. It is notable that the founder of Groves, none other than Abraham Groves was a social innovator of the previous century, who as a doctor pioneering surgical sterilization, did the first successful appendectomy in North America, created hydro power and phone service all to drive change in his home community. I am sure that if Groves were alive today, he would be promoting walkability and carbon footprint reduction.

Urban cores, and small town downtowns, continue to struggle with the appearance of big box stores on the periphery of communities. In addition to often devastating effect on once vibrant centres of community activity, this trend further exacerbates more driving and less walking. Not a good combination.

How do these choices in pubic infrastructure relate to the apocalyptic images of destruction at the top of this post? Climate change is very real with the effects more and more visible, and traumatic as each year passes. Events like the recent Fort McMurray fire, Goderich Tornado in 2011 and severe flooding in the UK can all be traced to the dramatic changes in global climate unfolding over the last few years. The steady, yet gradual increase in the earth’s temperature, leads to greater volatility and severity of weather events. We all know the depressing reality that, horrible as these are, things are going to get worse before they get better.

We used to call the buildup in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, driven by human activity powered by a reliance on fossil fuels such as oil and coal, Global Warming. It has been rebranded as climate change to reflect the reality that, although the average temperature increases, the main effect is to increase weather volatility. This volatility translates into extreme climate-related events with increasing frequency. Globally, climate change may lead to famines, mass migrations and wars of unprecedented scale and attendant misery.

Faced with this stark reality, you would expect a universal call for governments and public institutions to provide leadership to address climate change?

You would think not, but recent experiences have been been vividly frustrating in showing that, in fact, our public institutions have a long way to go. How are we, as citizens, able to do our part in these circumstances?

First it helps to break down such a massive problem into its constituent parts. To start, let’s quantify the effect that our transportation has on GHG reduction. From data compiled, ironically, by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, transportation is the biggest single sector contributing to Greenhouse Gas emissions, closely followed by Oil and Natural Gas producing industries. Further, Canada has a much poorer record in this regard than other rich nations.

We live in an era when people care deeply about the well-being of future generations. Residential homebuyers are increasingly prioritizing Walkability Scores, which include access to nearby schools in home buying decisions. No generation is more concerned than the Millenials, who have internalized the legacy that climate change will seriously and adversely impact them during their lifetimes. A major way to reverse GHG emissions growth is to tackle personal transportation – to work, schools, hospitals, leisure and shopping.

Collectively, the “M.U.S.H. Sector” (publicly funded organizations like Municipalities, Universities, Schools and Hospitals) has a huge opportunity to take leadership in our current war on carbon. While we might believe that leadership must start at the top with government, without grassroots calls for change the political cost can be too high. (See: CBC News: Politicians Are Green Until They’re Intimidated by the Electoral Price) The challenge will be to empower ordinary folk to drive a climate positive future by taking such thinking from the realm of environmentalists and making it mainstream.

We urgently need an optimistic call to action that citizens can easily embrace. I am working with people that the Elora Environment Centre, an NGO leading innovation and action on the environment, to repackage the Climate Change narrative from one that leaves people powerless, frustrated and even guilt-ridden. We aim to find ways to re-boot the climate change narrative, and unleash a crowdsourced solution coming from the grass roots. Stay tuned. Our planet and our children are counting on it!

30 May 2015

Snapshot of the ACA Summit 2015

In mid-April, I attended the 10th annual ACA Summit hosted by Angel Capital Association in San Diego. With about 600 people in attendance from dozens of countries, it was an excellent chance to get tuned into the latest trends happening in angel world at large.

And since Angel Investing is now a global phenomenon, it is interesting to note that ACA Summit can have two faces. On one hand, it is a very international gathering of Angel investors and yet sometimes the content reflects the fact that ACA is primarily an association of US Angel investors, for example by showing trends without regard that Canadian angels are just across the border.

The international range of attendees was striking, with many delegations from various European countries; Latin American countries like Mexico, Chile and Barbados; India; a particular concentration from Australia and New Zealand and of course Canada. Regarding this antipodean concentration, one attendee found it odd that there were more of participants from halfway around the world than from Canada.

I am a member of the program committee for Canada’s own 2015 NACO Summit which is being held October 6-8 in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario, right on the US frontier. I see a huge opportunity to learn and connect with more US and global angels.

Each year, the Angel Resource Institute publishes statistical information and trends in US Angel investing and at ACA released their 2014 Halo Report.

I’ve chosen some personally curated highlights both of that report and the overall conference:

Overall US Angel investment was about US$25 billion in 2014, surpassing venture capital investments. This represents over 300,000 investors in over 70,000 deals. We continue to have less comprehensive data for Canada, but we still lag on a per capita basis, but the gap is narrowing.
Although Crowdfunding was a major topic of discussion, it is still less than 2% of the above $25 billion figure, definitely lagging places like the UK where it is already at 5%.
Median deal size grew over 10% to $2 million in 2014, when co-investment is included. Median pre-money valuation grew 20% to $3 million.
The largest region for deal dollars (17.2%) was the Great Lakes Region (from Wisconsin to Ohio), surprising to those who thought most deals happen in California. Further, almost 50% of all deals are in states on the Canadian border, clearly presenting cross-border syndication opportunities.
Perhaps because of high valuations in the tech “hot spots”, such as New York City and California, more syndication across greater distances was reported, which goes against the traditional notion of investors focusing within a one-hour drive. Again, while the studies of greater cross-country syndication didn’t extend into Canada, it is easy to extend this trend cross-border. A drive could be to focus on those sectors requiring specialized skills such as medical technologies and life sciences.
There were a lot of great sessions on emerging, and ongoing, issues, such as crowdfunding, the new SEC Regulation A+ (mandated by the JOBS Act to simplify raises up to $20 million even from non-accredited investors), an ever increasing push to build new and innovative Angel Funds and even post investment Board governance.
In that vein, I ran an open panel on “Best Practices to Build a Private Equity Portfolio – Tools and Strategies”. What was notable was how primitive such angel portfolio management really was. One participant suggested angels portfolio management was comparable to that of public company portfolios 100 years ago. As Angels learn that a passive approach with little portfolio management is sub-optimal, leading Superangels, the advanced Angel groups and the trend to angel funds are all pushing for more professional portfolio management. Although historically they have worked separately, the increased involvement of Family Offices in the world of angels is also starting to drive greater portfolio discipline. New software tools are emerging to help here as well, such as Seraf – Portfolio Management for Angel Investors which was built by angels unable to find a way to automate their portfolio management.

In summary, ACA Summit 2015 was a fabulous opportunity to meet, network and learn from some of the best global angels and understand about emerging models and best practices. Many side bar conversations, dinners and drinks in the garden were packed with wisdom from around the world.

In October, our own NACO Summit will be a great opportunity for Canadians to similarly share and learn and to connect with a more global perspective as our Angel ecosystem continues to grow from strength to strength.

9 Nov 2014

Fall Of The Wall – 25 Years Later

A mere 25 years ago, the Fall of the Berlin Wall rent the “Iron Curtain” asunder, a re-ordering of western civilization possibly unparallelled since the fall of the Roman Empire.

25 years and 15 days ago, almost by happenstance, I drove the Berlin Corridor, travelled via Freidrichstraße Station behind the Berlin Wall and witnessed an exhausted and bankrupt regime about to collapse.

Today the world has joined Berlin in celebrating this momentous anniversary. This photo shows balloons lighting the old route of the Berlin Wall.

In 2014, we should be celebrating a distant historical memory. However, the sabre rattling by Vladimir Putin who illegally annexed Crimea, has (not so) covert troops actively de-stabilizing eastern Ukraine and causing existential jitters in the other former East Block countries, leads many commentators to be concerned that the Cold War didn’t end in 1989.

In 2009, for the 20th anniversary of these events, I published the following to describe my own experiences in the surreal world that 1989 Berlin represented:

Die Berliner Mauer – 20 Years After the End of History

Randall

14 Jan 2014

The Group of Seven – Nation Building for the 21st Century

Last year, I signed up for a wonderfully ambitious initiative spearheaded by our Governor General, His Excellency David Johnston. I was invited to join a Group of Seven who will serve as catalysts to rolling out David Johnson’s vision of a Smart and Caring Nation built by a set of Smart and Caring Communities, ultimately aimed to be a major national initiative to commemorate Canada’s 150th birthday, or sesquicentennial, in 2017.

I was very much honoured to be asked and, although it is a dauntingly large not to mention a somewhat unspecified, goal, as a proud Canadian who knows first hand David Johnston’s unique ability to lead and motivate, I quickly agreed to this call. I’ll share more about this initiative in order to seek your input. Since no small group can be representative of our huge and diverse nation, it is important the we engage in much dialogue from Canadians of all ages and demographic profile, in order to achieve maximum impact and relevance.

As a way to start that conversation, I’d like to share some of my perspectives on Smart and Caring 2017.

David Johnston’s Smart and Caring Vision:

This whole project starts with a great foundation in our Governor General’s Smart and Caring vision for Canada. And here is why his singular leadership is so critical to this initiative.

David Johnston has a long track record of motivation. Back in 2006, as President of Unviersity of Waterloo, he challenged the already ambitious and successful business, community and government leaders in Waterloo Region to reach even higher. Issued in November 2006, his Ten Goals to Make Waterloo Region Canada’s Knowledge Capital are a blueprint that inspired and motivated real change and continue to have an impact today.

Similarly, on 1 October 2010 at his installation speech as Governor General in the Senate Chambers in Ottawa, David Johnston laid out his vision for nation building in Canada, challenging us to build a Smart and Caring Nation:

“We are a Smart and Caring Nation.
A nation where all Canadians can grow their talents to the maximum.
A nation where all Canadians can succeed and contribute.
But there is much work to be done to fully achieve our vision of a Smart and Caring Nation. I believe it is essentialTo support families and children,
To reinforce learning and innovation, and
To encourage philanthropy and volunteerism.”

To build on that vision as we near the sesquicentennial of Canada as a country in 2017, His Excellency has challenged Community Foundations of Canada and the growing network of 191 grass roots Community Foundations across our country. He wants them to lead a groundswell movement, in each and every community and nationally, for Smart and Caring 2017.

Canada – A History of Evolutionary Nation Building:

With that vision as inspiration, and as a passionately proud Canadian, here is my perspective on Canada as a nation. We were not formed by revolution, as is the case in many other countries like the USA or France. True to our character, our particular style of nation-hood opted instead for evolution at a slow almost glacial pace. You might almost say that Canada pioneered nation building by committee. Specifically, a series of meetings commencing with the Charlottetown Conference, 150 years ago in 1864, led to Confederation on 1 July 1867.

I would argue that, as a nation, we were more defined by what we were not — ie. no tea parties or revolutions to overthrow a king. Instead, via peaceful change we enjoyed a tabula rasa upon which to architect a unique nation in those lands north of the growing United States of America. The process was slow. We remained essentially a colony with large parts of the country feeling more British than Canadian for many years. Consider how long it took us to have a non-British Governor General (Vincent Massey, 1952), our own flag (1965, replacing the Union Jack) or our own constitution (repatriated from Westminster in 1982).

Until the late 20th century, innumerable British colonial vestiges remained. Many people argue that Canadian heroism and sacrifices for the motherland in World War I, just 100 years ago, started the modern trend of a strengthening Canadian identity both internally and as a nation on the global stage.

Shortly after WWI, an influential group of painters, the original Group of Seven artists, created a truly Canadian vision of our country through direct contact with nature and our awe-inspiring landscape. Their work was notably distinct from the prevailing British styles of Turner, Constable and later British or European artistic styles.

Canada’s Centennial in 1967 marked a major inflection point for Canada. We had come through two world wars with a strong sense of national identity, supported by the burgeoning post war economy. Canada proudly led on the world stage with the likes UN Peacekeeping, Expo ’67 in Montréal and the uber cool federalist Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau.

Set right in the middle of the swinging 1960’s, our centennial celebrations in 1967 were a wonderful time to be alive. Besides Expo ’67 and the quaint historical “centennial” costumes people wore, today we are left with innumerable Centennial arenas, parkways, libraries, etc. These major investments in infrastructure are present with us today. I recall that time with pride and fondness.

CFC Smart and Caring Project:

Because the 21st Century seems so different than the previous, what kind of movement should honour Canada’s 150th birthday. It is a complex question, but I believe that if we can mobilize almost all communities across Canada into activities and projects inspired by the “Smart and Caring” mantra, like a national pot luck dinner we would effectively crowdsource some of national, and even, international significance.

Once again, we have a unique opportunity to make positive changes while setting a positive example for the world.

It is important to understand that, because each and every community is unique, communities must have the freedom to launch initiatives that directly suits their unique needs. Nonetheless, with diverse initiatives considered collectively, I believe that, taken as a whole we can shape and inspire the Canada of the future. We have so many advantages and the time is right to embark of nation building for the 21st century.

I would further hope that we would see collective action and partnership, both at the community level and national level, to increase the impact and effectiveness of the Smart and Caring 2017 initiatives. We must speak to and be meaningful to all Canadians:

young and old
recent immigrants or multi-generational Canadians
from east to west to the most northern reaches
Aboriginal, English, French or any other heritage

Because no group, no matter how large, can be sufficiently inclusive, that is why it is absolutely imperative that we, who have been honoured to help make this happen, hear from as many Canadians as possible.

Please weigh in here with comments or find other ways to get involved. And, I hope to provide more updates and opportunities to engage, participate, shape and drive Canada’s 150th birthday celebrations – Smart and Caring 2017.

Please start by sharing your thoughts on what Smart and Caring 2017 means to you.

1 Jan 2014

Ice Storms Highlight Canada’s Obsolete Infrastructure

As we enter 2014, well into the 21st Century, one lesson for me from the year just past was that Canada seems to be hobbled with 19th century infrastructure. Let me explain.

During 2013, my home in Ontario was subject to not one, but two, different ice storms – in April and December. Both brought down large chunks of trees and both caused multi-day electrical power outages. In decades, this is the first time I can recall losing power for more than 1 day. To have this occur twice, with a combined 8 days of power outage, in a single year is even more striking.

After the first ice storm in April, I recall discussing this with a European colleague who was surprised by the very notion of a power outage. From a European perspective, he suggested the last power outage, of any length, that he could recall was 30 years ago. This started me thinking about why the difference.

In Canada, we have always prided ourselves on being one of the world’s richest countries, with modern infrastructure. However, much of our infrastructure was built for a different time and need. Much of it is really a testament to truly inventive Victorian design. It was indeed wonderful but no longer makes sense in the 21st Century. So, why indeed do we still have most of our electrical power lines above-ground on poles, while the rest of the (rich) world generally buries them? Why do our railways still rely on switches that freeze in winter and need to be operated by workers with propane torches? Why is a city like Toronto paralyzed by a major rainstorm?

Our homes, utilities, drainage and much more was built for a world predating our current period of rapid climate change. Surprisingly there remain in this world Luddites, who bizarrely continue to deny the fact of climate change. While we still have much to learn, on-the-ground results are here for all to see.

I gained significant insight into these issues when as a Director of Gore Mutual Insurance Company, a leading property insurer, I attended an enlightening presentation by the poignantly named Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR). This industry-funded organization is a world leader, collaborating globally in research and advocacy around the causes and solutions for large scale insurance losses, known in industry jargon as a Catastrophe or even a Cat.

ICLR gathers data and works with many academic researchers to increase both understanding and awareness of what causes insurance losses. The data shows that the last ten years have seen huge increases in the number of severity of large scale losses, particularly from damaging wind, water and ice events, which are all significantly driven by climate change.

For example, with increased wind events (typically tornadoes in this area of Ontario), a call for more homes to be built with windows structurally rated to withstand 200 mph wind events makes sense.

Furthermore, climate change means that rainfall in 1 hour can equal what used to occur over 24 hours or more, with flash floods ensuing. In such an environment, instead of our historic practice of getting rid of water as quickly as possible, it is better to slow it down and buffer the potential for flash flooding.

For me, the power outages are a metaphor for how we in Canadian society need to look at our infrastructure with a sense of long term vision. We really need to invest to upgrade utilities, transportation and drainage for the needs of the 21st century. This in no way takes away from the heroic efforts of Hydro workers over the holiday season. I’m simply surprised that attention has never been focused on the root cause and long term prevention.

In an era of political infighting and embarrassing city Mayors, I’m wondering where the leadership necessary to achieve this will come from?

A GO Train is stranded on flooded tracks in Toronto on Monday, July 8, 2013. THE CANADIAN PRESS/

Tech Terroir

In the world of wine, the concept of terroir describes a centuries long process in which the climate, soil, grape varieties and dedicated vintners, symbiotically develop a unique “sense of place” for a wine region. A favourite of mine, the garrulous and quintessential Californian vintner, Randall Grahm, while trying to establish the old World notion of terroir in California postulates that it is a long term proposition and can take centuries to develop.

As both a wine lover and serial tech entrepreneur, I firmly believe that building a tech cluster is similarly a very long term process. Ironically, the epicentre of tech clusters is in California. The Silicon Valley, which got its start in the 1950s remains the major cluster worldwide as “… no other place as yet has the Valley’s scale and resilience.”

Although I started my tech startup career in the US, it was in the Canada’s leading tech cluster of Waterloo where I built major companies and was one person who got that cluster started. Like Silicon Valley’s origins in Stanford University, the Waterloo cluster was initially fuelled by University of Waterloo. Over time, a combination of executive and programming talent, capital and professional services capabilites led to the current state of almost 1000 technology companies. By contrast to Silicon Valley, Waterloo is a must younger cluster, having started just over 25 years ago compared to the 60 years of Silicon Valley. It continues to mature around some key ingredients such as global strategic marketing capabilities and sufficient capital to fund on a globally competitive basis. Experienced people may well be the most important ingredient in a cluster’s maturation.

Further, I feel that all who have been fortunate to build wealth and experience in business, owe an obligation to “pay it forward” to the next generation. My own contributions include significant startup mentoring, Board and strategic roles in organizations like Communitech and Innovation Guelph, and for the last 3 years a Board role and chairing Selection Committee for the Golden Triangle AngelNet (GTAN). In just 3 years, GTAN has grown to about 150 paid accredited investor members who bring a wealth of experience to the 25 funding transactions to date. And, it goes without saying, that many of those financings might not have happened without GTAN having emerged to fill a significant funding gap as VC’s became largely extinct. Acting as a superangel to syndicate angel network deals is a tremendously labour intensive exercise, but one that I and others believe will pay off in the long term economic prosperity of our region.

I firmly believe knowledge-based companies to be the key ingredient of our future economic prosperity, so such company-building competence is mission critical for our region, province, country and globally. As globalization occurs, we see more and more regions clambering to reap the riches of the innovative, tech startup world.

To that end, at Verdexus, we have always taken a transatlantic perspective, primarily to have a more global window on building companies that can achieve world leadership in their chosen businesses. Over the years, I’ve worked with startups across the United States and Europe in the dominant clusters such as Boston, Chicago, Silicon Valley, London, Munich, Berlin, Stockholm and more. To round out my experience, over the last few years, I’ve sampled some key emerging regions by volunteering as an expert judge in places as diverse as Brussels area, Warsaw and Torino. A week ago, I had the opportunity to judge startups associated with the European Space Agency in Toulouse France as well as in Istanbul, Turkey. The latter Istanbul venue, EU Venture Forum was jointly sponsored by EUREKA (the pan-European research and development funding and coordination organization) and Europe Unlimited from Brussels. Collectively, these more than a dozen regional events ultimately feed into a pan-European venture prize in Berlin in December.

It has been very instructive to visit various clusters. This grassroots view, from the perspective of startups, reveals much in common globally but also a few surprises. Based solely on interacting with local startups, on a global perspective, it is clear that culture and experience vary greatly across various Euroopean regions. For example, I was pleasantly surprised that Warsaw had some of the smartest and most sophisticated business startups I’d seen anywhere. And, remember, they are pitching in English which is not their native language. Conversely, the cluster around Torino appeared to have a long way to go before its startups would begin to measure up globally.

Similarly, the startups I saw in Istanbul were impressive. Some companies, following a model also common to the emerging markets of Central and Eastern Europe, were essentially cloning an existing business model into the 80 million strong Turkish market. More significantly others were clearly building globally strong technology startups. One pleasant surprise was that, of the eight companies that I coached the day before the forum, three had women CEOs. This was a surprise for Turkey, but sadly women-led companies remain all to rare in Canada

The calibre of engineering and basic technology talent was very impressive. That said, it was also clear that the level of support ecosystem around these startups is very limited – at least compared to what we see here in North America. One direct challenge was that in Europe companies appear to receive generous R&D funding which seems to encourage more of an engineering mentality than a market-driven one. In essence, projects stay too long as “science projects” and the culture and skills to get projects to market seem to suffer as a result. Although this is a generalization, there are many exceptions.

In the area of capital, the meltdown in Venture Capital A Round investments is about 3-4 years behind what already occurred in Canada. One particularly European challenge is that more and more of the VC funds have moved their offices and focus from regional markets to London, meaning that companies in the regions often have less direct access to capital. Conversely, the growing role of Angel Networks and Superangels to fill the gap is still in its infancy in Europe. I suspect that will change over the next two or three years. Venture funders like to either be close (1 hour travel) to their portfolio companies or, at the very least, to have a local investor who can “provide adult supervision”. Increasingly, experienced serial entrepreneurs will be called on to fill that key local role as Angels and Superangels. It is clear that the notion of Tim Draper going to Estonia and finding Skype is definitely the exception rather than the rule.

And that takes me right back to the notion of “tech terroir”. As global innovation increases, and people around the world vie to build ever stronger tech startup ecosystems, it is the dedicates entrepreneurs in the sector who magically nurture these maturing ecosystems. As one of the entrepreneurs that I coached mentioned, she wants to:

“make innovation easier in Turkey and to make life easier for entrepreneurs”

So, in addition to building a great global business, she also takes time to help move the needle of her local ecosystem forward. It’s a very encouraging sign that continues to inspire me as I engage with the new globalized world of tech startups.

3 Aug 2012

[Book Review]: The Idea Factory

The idea factory by Jon Gernter

Published by Penguin Press
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A marvellous exploration of a research and innovation powerhouse that, even viewed from this age of innovation, surprisingly anticipated many approaches we think of as modern breakthroughs.
I’ve long admired Bell Labs and feel that many of its researchers and innovations interacted with an impacting my own career. While in University, the notion of working with or at Bell Labs was the highest aspiration for top thinkers in many fields. The Idea Factory is an engaging read and showed me how limited my understanding of that institution really was.

First of all, from the 1920s to the 1980s, it was way ahead of its time as an agent of innovation. The approaches were brilliant and could be applied today, including the notion of building architecture and organization structures to encourage interdisciplinary collaboration. Breaking down “knowledge silos” was definitely countercultural in a century known for specialization.

Secondly, the sheer number of transformational inventions, including the laser, transistor, fibre optics, satellite communications, the cellular mobile network, integrated circuits and the notion of information as digital that came from a single institution is both surprising and would be impossible in today’s world. Sadly, in the modern competitive marketplace, there is likely no room for a monolithic regulated monopoly, as was AT&T, to support such a single engine of innovation and basic research.

My primary connection with Bell Labs was through computer science with innovations such as UNIX and C Programming Language. The historical context this book outlines shows how surprising this is because AT&T was, by regulatory decree, precluded from entering the computer industry. That said, it is ironic that most of the inventions of Bell Labs, collectively contrived to make telecommunications as a separate industry obsolete. Instead, as predicted as early as 1948 by the remarkable information age seer, Claude Shannon, much of the modern economy has by transformed by our current digital age of networked and pervasive computing.

Lastly, Gertner explores the culture of those who drove innovation. Often eccentric, and to outsiders perhaps impossible or unemployable individuals, had the sheer force of will and brainpower to achieve breakthroughs that others either hadn’t even considered or thought impossible. Given my own small town origins, the deliberate strategy of finding these small town prodigies to populate the largest research-oriented brain trust in the world resonated.

All too often, societies believe that they are the first to master innovation. Sometimes we should stop and consider successful strategies from the past. Far from being solely a modern preoccupation, innovation has always been a hallmark of human advancement. Yet, with no clear place for a lucrative and regulated monopoly to fund pure research, where will the fundamental research of the future originate?

The book cites John Mayo, a former Bell Labs chief,

“Bell Labs substantial innovations, account for a large fraction of the jobs in this country and around the world”

In a world driven by global markets and the quarterly thinking of Wall Street, we really do need to consider how our next leap of fundamental research will be unleashed. John Pierce, another Bell Labs chief summarized the “Bell Labs formula” in four main points:

“A technically competent management all the way to the top.
Researchers who didn’t have to raise funds.
Research on a topic or system could be, and was, supported for years.
Research could be terminated without damning the researcher.”

Beyond learning from the wisdom of the leading research institution, where will we find the vision and resources to enable innovation on such a transformational scale? Beyond the Venture Capital and now Angel funded technology startup ecosystem, perhaps exemplars like Mike Lazaridis‘s pioneering Perimeter Institute of Theoretical Physics will chart a course for the 21st century.

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